31 maio 2008

luz ao fundo do túnel

A vitória de MFL, com ideias muito próximas das do actual Governo, é um contributo notável para o fim do actual regime político. Porquê? Porque elimina a possibilidade de uma verdadeira alternância e portanto abre as portas a uma mudança radical.
Se a actual crise económica se prolongar ou até se acentuar, todos sabem que o maior partido da oposição só nos poderá vir a dar mais do mesmo e portanto é bem possível que a paciência dos portugueses de esgote. Por esta razão, MFL é uma luz de esperança no nosso horizonte.

vitória

it hurts








Dear friends,
This is a flagrant case of mistaken identity. I was in the hospital, indeed, because of the severe beating I took from Zazie, but the picture that PA posted it’s not me. Since I always try to pursue the truth, I feel obliged to post the true picture that was taken of me during my hospital stay. I know it is embarrassing, but what can I say…

o interregno

Num partido fraccionado em dois blocos homogéneos, a divisão de um deles em dois dá automaticamente a vitória ao outro. É isto que representa a eleição de Manuela Ferreira Leite, com os seus cerca de 40% de eleitores, sensivelmente a mesma margem de Marques Mendes há seis meses, o que significa que o partido continua irremediavelmente fraccionado: nenhum dos lados conseguiu «seduzir» o outro. A prazo, é previsível que José Sócrates perca a maioria absoluta mas ganhe à mesma as eleições, e que a agitação no PSD continue. Será muito difícil a Manuela Ferreira Leite aguentar cinco anos e meio, até às eleições de 2012. É, por isso, mais do que provável que o partido assista, lá para meados da segunda legislatura de Sócrates, a nova disputa eleitoral. Desta vez entre Rui Rio e quem venha a segurar o segundo lugar da eleição de hoje.

left hospital


Rui,

Are you there? How is dinner? I'll be there at 8:30.

I'll bring some wine. By the way, at your place, if we drink can we write?

May I inform you that Joaquim has left hospital. No, he did not perform any surgery today. He was just recovering from zazie's unrepentant battering.

Now, is it tonight that we are going to rob Blasfémias of João Miranda?

See you later.

at its best


As Rui has already announced, we will be meeting tonight to watch the PSD election. The meeting will be held at Rui's place and will be preceded by dinner (he is an excellent cook and gourmet). Two members of Portugal Contemporâneo will be absent. Ricardo is abroad and Joaquim is treating his wounds from zazie's unrelenting nalgadas. But we have a honoured guest, João Miranda, from Blasfémias.

I am very interested in the outcome of today's PSD election. The reason is that I consider PSD the most representative party of the Portuguese population and culture. It is the most open and the least ideological of all parties. Provided you do not contest the leader, you can be a member of PSD, regardless of whether you are a communist or an anarchist, a believer or an atheist. Socialists are welcome too, as are liberals and conservatives, catholics and protestants, gays and heterossexuals, prostitutes and pimps.

As I argued in a previous post Catholic peoples are not very good at ideologies. They are unable to create an ideology of their own and, when they have one, it is invariably imported from abroad. When they do embrace an ideology they believe to have found absolute truth and they rapidly become fanatical and intolerant.

PSD is nothing of the sort. Being the least ideological of all parties, it is the most tolerant of all. Most members of PSD see themselves as being non-socialists and sometimes they go to great pains trying to explain the difference between social-democracy and socialism. That is, they do not even care to know that social-democracy is a branch of socialism itself. This is PSD at its best.

A climate of division and crisis in PSD is thus, in my eyes, a very strong sign of a climate of division and crisis in the country. This is why I shall be watching very closely tonight's winner. If the winner is Manuela Ferreira Leite that means that party and country have hit bottom and may have started a process of reconstruction and reform. If, on the other hand, any other candidate wins, well, that means more trouble ahead for PSD and the country.

my guess



I have never been a member of a political party and never occupied any political position in my life. This makes me feel some kind of a semi-ignorant outsider regarding the intricacies of democratic party politics, something for which I have no taste at all.

Since I have lost my faith in the benefits of democracy when applied to a Catholic country, I have no preference for any one of the candidates who today run for the presidency of PSD. But I have a guess, and my guess is that Manuela Ferreira Leite will win by a comfortable margin.

The reason is that when times are tough people tend to return to those values of their culture which they know almost by instinct are essential to their survival and a prerequisite for their prosperity. One of such critical values in the Portuguese, Catholic culture is authority. Among all the candidates, I sense that Manuela Ferreira Leite in view of her career, even her age, is best placed to pass an image of authority.

I would like to point out that I do not believe she will make a difference for the country. But I do believe she will make a difference for her party, a party which, under the leadership of any other of the candidates, would tend to disaggregate rapidly.

Argentina, 2002


Fishermen are already on the streets. Watch this phenomenon very closely. Within the next few months other social groups will follow suit protesting against prevailing economic and social conditions.

Who will be the main targets of popular discontent? Politicians. It's going to be serious, indeeed, but this is a reaction quite understandable within Catholic culture. People are unable of independent thought. Thus, they expect government - that is, politicians - to tell them what to think and what to do. When things go wrong - and they are going wrong by the day - it is not their fault. It is the fault of politicians who did not do their job properly telling people the right things to think and do.
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Thus, as economic conditions continue to deteriorate rapidly, we are about to watch the most radical, ferocious, virulent attack on democratic politicians this generation has ever known in this country. Ultimately, it is democracy that will be at stake. I doubt it will resist. These forthcoming events will have a parallel with similar events that occured in another Catholic country this decade: Argentina, 2002.

independent thought


I have been developing lately the argument that, when people of a Catholic culture are left to think for themselves, they show up to be poor thinkers and unable of independent thought.

This idea was permanent in Salazar's mind when he tried to rebuild the country in the early 1930's from the devastation produced by the republican, democratic experience of 1910-26. He did not trust the capacity of the Portuguese people for rational, independent thought, and I think he was right at that. In his public speeches at the time he hits repeatedly at this point. The following are some examples:

On one occasion (see post below) : "(...) à cópia servil de quanto se pensa e faz em país estrangeiro, inspirador máximo da nossa actividade desde há muito tempo".

On other occasion: "A falta, porém, de independência mental, que acompanhou a nossa decadência e durante esta nos levou, tanta vez, à cópia servil do estrangeiro (...)" (1938)

Again: "O povo português (...) [deixa-se] induzir facilmente pelos que, sem nenhuma preocupação intelectual ou moral, sabem falar-lhe ao coração". (Interview to C. Garnier)

One more time: " (...) o (...) coração [do povo português] é generoso (...) mas o seu espírito pouco inclinado à objectividade" (ibid.)

servile and foreign


The economic and social crisis that is gaining shape day by day in the country at an accelerated pace is the most severe since the 1920's and is essentially of the same nature. As Salazar tried to rebuild the country in the early 1930's he perfectly understood what had to be done - letting the Portuguese people live according to their own traditions, rather than by servile imitation of what is foreign and alien to them:

"Nem sei em que o trabalho de reaportuguesamento das nossas instituições sociais e políticas, e o culto das boas, sãs, fecundas tradições nacionais, tão próprias para nos dar originalidade e carácter, hão-de levantar dificuldades de monta e não ser preferidos à cópia servil de quanto se pensa e faz em país estrangeiro, inspirador máximo da nossa actividade desde há muito tempo." (Salazar, Discursos, vol. I, 1928-34).
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This is the very same thing that has to be done today.

sem futuro

A chamada underclass é constituída por pessoas que não se integram na sociedade em que vivem, que adoptam comportamentos marginais e que parasitam tudo e todos à sua volta. Sempre existiram marginais, mas a underclass constitui um grupo particular de marginais, pessoas capazes das maiores atrocidades sem quaisquer sentimentos de culpa. Em Portugal a underclass é um fenómeno novo e, como disse, não deve ser confundida com a pobreza.

Oscar Lewis, o sociólogo que cunhou o termo underclass, observou que a underclass está focada no presente e demonstra pouca capacidade para adiar qualquer gratificação ou planear o futuro. É uma observação muito perspicaz, a capacidade de contemplar o futuro é a principal característica que nos distingue dos animais e portanto Oscar Lewis está a dizer-nos, por outras palavras, que a underclass está num estado primitivo de desenvolvimento. São seres da espécie humana que não estão domesticados, por assim dizer.

Muitos factores culturais estarão relacionados com a emergência da underclass. No post anterior referi o Estado Previdência e portanto vai implícito que o socialismo me parece também responsável pelo fenómeno.
O ateísmo poderá ser outro factor implicado na génese da underclass. As religiões, em particular as Cristãs, compelem-nos a pensar no futuro, em última instância na vida eterna e nos sacrifícios que temos de fazer para a atingir. Ora a postura imediatista da underclass pode ser interpretada como a expressão cultural da anunciada morte de Deus. O que me leva a concluir que a morte de Deus estaria inevitavelmente associada à morte da nossa humanidade.

a warning


Following my previous posts, two interesting questions can be asked theoretically. First, what would happen if politicians from a Catholic country were to run the government of a Protestant country (say, Portuguese politicians running the US government) ? Second, and what about politicians from a Protestant country running the government of a Catholic country (say, American politicians running the Portuguese government)?

I start with the first question. The Catholic politicians would be perceived by the Protestant population as a double threat. On the one hand, the government would try to impose an orthodoxy of thought on the Protestant people which would be regarded by them as an intolerable interference with their traditional freedom of thought. On the other hand, the Catholic government would be soft on law enforcement, which would turn the Protestant society into a society of criminals, leading directly to its destruction.

A Catholic government in a Protestant society is not a good prospect. In a democratic environment, it is clear that such government would not be re-elected. Most likely some of its members would be murdered while in office. (This might explain why the Kennedy family has been the target of political assassinations in the US; it is also a warning to Portuguese politicians of never dreaming to run the US government, or any other Protestant country government).

Let me now consider the case of Protestant politicians running the government of a Catholic country. Such government would be disliked for two reasons. First, since the government would not try to tell the people what to do - that is, it would not try to impose an orthodoxy - it would be regarded by the population as not governing the country at all, because Catholic people expect the government to tell them what to think and what to do; at the same time, while allowing freedom of speech, the government would be opening the way to the country's own destruction. Second, since the Protestant government would enforce laws strictly, it would be seen by the Catholic people as interfering in an intolerable manner with their traditional freedom of action. (This scenario approaches the situation in Portugal today, as many government measures are imported from the EU where Protestant countries are dominant).

It is rather unlikely that any politician of the Protestant government would be murdered by the Catholic population during his mandate. But this government would surely lose the next general election.

critically dependent


The main function of government (authority) in Protestant societies is to enforce laws. The main function of government (authority) in Catholic societies is to tell people what to think.

Law enforcement is a police matter and something that common people can easily do. It is not so easy when it comes to telling people what to think - this requires an elite. Thus, Protestant countries can be governed by common people and yet prosper. It becomes a tragedy, however, when common people govern a Catholic country because they are not used to think independently, lest they are prepared to tell other people what to think.
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The prosperity of a Catholic country is critically dependent of it being governed by an elite, a requirement that does not apply to a Protestant country.

30 maio 2008

Catholic science of Economics


In Protestant, conventional Economics the market process has been regarded as a discovery mechanism and the source of innovation in society. This is also the view of the Austrian school of Economics which, despite her country of origin, has been cultivated over the last century predominantly in Protestant countries, mainly through the works of Mises and Hayek.

The view of the market process as a mechanism of social innovation is true in a Protestant society. It is not true in a Catholic society where the source of all social innovation is authority, that is, government. As I have been arguing in recent posts, in a Catholic culture people are not used to think by themselves. Any innovation by a man in this culture will immediately be put down by his fellow-citizens who do not recognize in him the ability for innovative thinking and action, because this is an ability they do not recognize to themselves. In a Catholic culture the only innovations that have a chance of being widely accepted by society are those which come from authority.

Over the last thirty years there have been two innovations originating in Portugal which became widely accepted by society, not only in this country but, to some extent, abroad. I refer to Via Verde and Multibanco. It should be noted, though, that these innovations did not result from the free competitive process of the market. Actually, Via Verde was created by a government-owned monopoly - Brisa - and Multibanco was created at a time when all banks were state-owned banks, that is, a government cartel.

It is the authority of government the main mechanism of discovery and innovation in a Catholic society, not the free market process of Protestant society. This point reinforces the need to develop some kind of a Catholic science of Economics, as opposed to conventional Economics which is predominantly Protestant Economics and whose results, for the most part, do not apply to a predominantly Catholic environment.
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May I add that the great Discoveries by the Portuguese in the fifteenth and and sixteenth centuries were not the work of private initiative, or pirates. They were conducted under the authority of the Crown, that is, of government.

directas no psd

Amanhã, o Portugal Contemporâneo fará a cobertura das eleições do PSD, em directo de várias sedes e na única reportagem multilingue (português, inglês, francês e mandarim). E prometemos anunciar o vencedor (a?) antes das urnas fecharem. Lá pela hora do almoço. A não perder.

not Italy


In a post below, I argued that the greatest threat to a Protestant society is unlawfulness. A Protestant society that does not enforce strictly its laws will end up in ruin and chaos. Unlawfulness is not a serious threat to a Catholic society, thus, there is no need for strict law enforcement in a Catholic country (actually, it would be counterproductive).

Helder in O Insurgente has called my attention for a Wall Street Journal article where my thesis is vindicated: "The US isn't Italy: we will enforce our laws", writes the author.

The greatest threat to a Catholic society is contradicting authority, that is, heresy. This threat becomes real in a climate of freedom of speech which usually is part and parcel of democracy. A Catholic society that does not impose some form of censorship, or does not enforce strictly its censorship laws, is doomed to ruin and chaos.
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Concerning law enforcement, then, to prevent its own destruction all a Catholic society has to do is to enforce strictly its censorship laws whereas a Protestant society needs to enforce strictly all of its laws.

underclass

Quando falamos de pobreza é útil não confundirmos os pobres com a chamada “underclass”. Este termo, que segundo a wiki foi introduzido por Oscar Lewis, em 1961, refere-se a pessoas que não se integram na sociedade e que vivem à sua margem.
São vagabundos, prostitutas de rua, carteiristas, drogófilos e alcoólicos que parasitam a sociedade. Independentemente de toda a ajuda social de que disponham, os elementos da underclass não abandonam o seu estilo de vida e prejudicam gravemente os seus concidadãos, por quem não nutrem qualquer respeito .
Em Portugal, a underclass é um fenómeno novo e muitos confundem-na com a pobreza. Quanto a mim, a underclass é fruto das sociedades com um Estado Previdência desenvolvido que abriga, alimenta, veste e dá dinheiro para o bolso destas pessoas.

há espaço





Há espaço para aumentar os impostos directos em Portugal... Estou a falar do IRS. Faz sentido considerar a criação de um escalão de 45%, por exemplo, acima de 200 mil euros. Uma segunda medida, mas que demora mais tempo a produzir efeitos, é a tributação das mais-valias.

Entrevista do Presidente executivo do BPI ao DE

pas dangereux


Rui,

Je pense que j'ai la solution à notre question. Nous avons raison tous les deux. Je viens de suivre les comentaires de zazie parce qu'elle connait tout le monde dans la blogo. Et elle ne se trompe pas dans ces affaires à cause de son expérience dans ce milieu et son intuition féminine. Les gens qui sont après nous (plus moi que toi, il faut l'admettre) sont une combinaison du lobby gai et du lobby athée avec un petit peu du lobby juif (comme tu le sais il y a beaucoup de juifs dans ce pays, on les trouve partout à chaque coin).

Donc le mystère est éclaircie. Tu peux t'endormir tranquille. Ils ne sont pas dangereux.

Amitiés.
(PS. Pardonne-moi de t'écrire en étranger mais je ne veux pas qu'ils comprennent ce que je dis. Comme tu le sais les portugais ont une très grande admiration pour tout ce qu'ils ne saisissent pas. Alors, ils vont dire de moi à ses amis: "Quoi, Arroja? Quel génie, ce gars! Il peut même écrire en étranger!")

29 maio 2008

a brand new, radically different one


A Cath country certainly needs an organic law to make explicit the organization of the state. But it does not need a Constitution. Constitutions were conceived to prevent governments from interfering with the private domain of its citizens. In Cath countries a Constitution is not required to this end. Unspoken and unwritten tradition does the job.

Cath peoples do have a long and standing tradition of resistance against government interference in their privates lives, a tradition in whose development the Catholic Church played a major role. It is this tradition that makes Cath peoples the freest people - in the sense of freedom of action, as argued below - in Western Civilization and probably in the whole Word.

It is only when this unwritten tradition is brought to allegedly rational, public discussion and is made explicit in a written Constitution that Cath peoples open the door for all sorts of government abuses of their private lives, abuses which their ancestors resisted successfully for centuries.

Some of the signs that show a Constitution to be an institution foreign to our tradition do not lie barely in the fact that nobody pays attention to it and nobody really believes it will be respected as law. Probably more important than that is the number of Constitutions we have had since the first was written in 1822.

Whereas the US has had only one Constitution since 1789 and a very small Constitution which has received very few amendments, the Portuguese in turn have had not least than seven constitutions since 1822, one every twenty-five years. This suggests that for the Portuguese constitutions are like dresses or shoes, which come and go with the fashions and idiossincracies of each generation, something they can discard easily and replace by a brand new, radically different one.

iraq & oil









Iraq dramatically increased the official size of its oil reserves yesterday after new data suggested that they could exceed Saudi Arabia’s and be the largest in the world.

maslow

Quando escrevi o meu último post, sobre a pobreza relativa, estava apenas a comentar uma observação do Presidente do Conselho Económico e social que me pareceu muito infeliz. Apesar de ser difícil quantificar qualquer tipo de sofrimento, recuso colocar no mesmo nível o que é causado por carências básicas com o que possa ser causado por necessidades relacionadas com a auto-estima ou com o respeito social.
Penso que se trata de uma questão de bom senso sobre a qual não vale a pena verter muitos comentários.
Ao reflectir sobre o assunto ocorreu-me, contudo, que a comparação entre a pobreza absoluta e a pobreza relativa tem um perigo enorme. Uma ameaça medonha que deve ser exposta. Se aceitarmos que os que vivem em pobreza relativa, num pais rico, sofrem tanto ou quase tanto como os que vivem em pobreza absoluta, nos países pobres, estamos a justificar o desprezo pelos verdadeiros pobres. Estamos a desencorajar o altruísmo e a incentivar o egoísmo.
A pobreza relativa tem várias definições. Uma das mais populares define um pobre como um indivíduo que aufere um rendimento líquido inferior a 60% da mediana. Ora num país rico este montante é bastante elevado. Nos EUA, o rendimento atribuído aos destitutos, pelo Estado, somado a diversas ajudas e subsídios, ultrapassa os 14.000,00 € / ano /por pessoa. O que eu afirmo é que a situação destas pessoas não deve ser comparada à das que vivem com 1 ou 2 euros por dia.
Até os pobres dos países ricos devem ajudar a pobreza absoluta. Se os pobres relativos não demonstrarem altruísmo para com os que vivem na pobreza absoluta, não devem esperar qualquer altruísmo dos ricos. Este é, aliás, um dos ensinamentos mais antigos do Cristianismo: Trata os outros como gostarias que te tratassem a ti.

found the answer


For someone who is interested in the study of human societies the blogosphere is a gift of God. It is a kind of laboratory regarding human behaviour. In a truly open blog as Portugal Contemporaneo (Rui's courtesy), one can observe human beliefs and actions, and formulate and test hypotheses about them, something which would not be possible otherwise.

Some two weeks ago, I noticed a massive star-rating in my posts (low star-ratings, I must say), compared to what is usual in this blog. Add to this the fact that it is not uncommon that some eight to ten one star-ratings often occur within a very short period of time. A couple of days ago I had the opportunity to discuss the issue with Rui and we had a great time at it. This could be a very serious issue indeed, as it affects my reputation and I might go down in history as the most unpopular blogger of the 21st century. We both agreed that it was concerted or group action.

The next question was which group or lobby in the blogosphere was after me. Several possibilities were raised: the Jewish lobby, the atheistic lobby, the Blasfemias lobby with Cristina Keller as commander-in-chief (obviously suggested by myself), the gay lobby, the extreme-left lobby, the atheistic lobby, the anti-writing-em estrangeiro lobby and the anti-salazaristic lobby.

To test one of those possibilities (may I say this was Rui's favoured one; mine is the atheistic, anti-catholic lobby) I placed this post totally out of context with what I have been writing recently. So far I consider the test inconclusive.

I must admit, though, that the particular group of people who take the time and trouble to act in concert to rate massively my posts is not, and never was, my main concern. My key question was different: why would people act in group to rate posts in the blogosphere? Why in group? I lived several years of my life in a foreign, Protestant country, and this behaviour in group would be totally unthinkable there. Why in Portugal would it be different?

I think I have found the answer to this question. It is here.

What for?


Suppose that a purely Prot people discover a new land in Oceania and decide to set up a new country there. Suppose further that most of these people are not followers of Rothbard or CN and consider that there is the need for a government, that is, an institution endowed with coercive powers to force all of its citizens to abide by the law.

This Prot people have a very serious problem to solve, indeed. They are divided along religious lines, in factions or sects. The religious division is the most dangerous of all divisions in a human society, the reason being that each one of the factions believes it has the truth and the most absolute of all truths - the truth of God. Thus, each faction feels it can impose its truth on all other factions and people because in doing it so it has the approval, if not the active support of God.

The problem in this would-be Prot country is that, if one of the religious factions gets the upper hand of government - that is, of coercive power - it will not take long until it will try to submit all other factions, and make life intolerable to all other members of society.

The only way to make this Prot country viable is for all of its factions to agree on a most basic issue - an agreement so fundamental that it must become the first law of the country - namely, that government cannot interfere in the private affairs of its citizens. This fundamental law limiting the powers of government to invade the private domain of individuals in society is called a Constitution.

The idea of a Constitution is a purely Protestant idea and one should not be surprised that the first modern Constitution, and the mother of all modern Constitution, was conceived in a predominantly Protestant country - the United States of America.

Suppose now that a purely Cath people discovers a new land and decides to set up a new country. Do they need a Constitution?

What for? These people are united in their religious outlook, and there are no divisions among them. Unless you divide them first. You can do it by introducing democracy with its attendant political parties, which are the the direct descendants of Protestant religious sects. It could then be argued that in this democratic, Cath country a Constitution is needed because it would prevent each political party to do, through the coercive power of government, to other political parties what each religious faction would be willing to do to all other factions in a Prot country - the imposition of her own truth to all members of society, that is, the rule of absolute power.

This argument does not stand once we realize that the distinguishing feature of a purely Cath society is her unity of thought, the commonly shared belief that there exists only one truth which is regarded by all as absolute truth. It thus follows that what each political party in a Cath society will try to do as soon as he can, regardless of whether there is a Constitution or not, is to impose his absolute truth on all other parties and members of society - that is, his absolute power.

A Constitution serves no purpose in a Cath society, other than providing jobs, careers, money and ephemeral reputation to so called constitutionalists. Although a Constitution is propaled as the most fundamental law of the country soon people will realized that it is the least respect law of all. The reason is that those who are most likely to violate the Constitution are precisely those who can do it with total impunity, for those are the people who hold the power of government.

a mangueira é curta?

Já o dr. Rui Rio deixou «escapar» uma graça à frente das câmaras da SIC, em que falava de incêndios, bombeiros e do PSD. Ele disse que «um destes dias» iria «apagar o fogo» que lavra no seu partido, porque «eles» não se entendem e continuam a incendiar tão rico património. «Vai para lá um incêndio?» perguntava, risonho, para trás, a um solicito assessor que ria desalmadamente com as graças do chefe. De resto, a piada não podia ter sido mais oportuna num apoiante de Manuela Ferreira Leite e demonstra uma de duas coisas: ou que Rio já deu por perdida a eleição da sua candidata, ou que ele não a acha capaz de «apagar o incêndio», utilizando a sua colorida linguagem. Não se compreende porque razão é que um bombeiro tão talentoso não avançou já, de mangueira na mão, para a frente do incêndio. Ou o incêndio é devastador e Rio não se quer chamuscar, ou lhe faltou a água, ou a mangueira é curta. Ou tudo junto, como sugerem os seus amigos do outro lado do Douro.

ainda conta bastante...

Manuela Ferreira Leite pode bem ter perdido no debate de hoje à noite as eleições do dia 31. Não exactamente por demérito seu, já que esteve como sempre, igual a si mesma, monocórdica, com ar sisudo e muito responsável, mas por mérito de um adversário com o qual não contaria: Patinha Antão. Dentro do mesmo género tecnocrático-financeiro-orçamentista, Antão foi muito mais rigoroso, demonstrou dominar os assuntos e adiantou propostas concretas e inteligíveis. Nada disto foi feito por MFL, que se limitou a insistir nos assuntos do costume: não desce impostos, não é liberal, quer o Estado na economia e é muito, muito social-democrata, embora não tenha conseguido explicar o que isso é. É, por isso, bem provável que algum do voto que lhe pertencia passe para Patinha. Até porque este continua no activo, é deputado, desempenha funções no grupo parlamentar e já foi dizendo umas coisas simpáticas sobre Pedro Passos Coelho, logo, está e estará pela orla do poder. E isto, parecendo que não, ainda conta bastante...

28 maio 2008

when the elite is absent


Prot people relate directly and individually to God in their search for truth. Despite their individualistic approach to God there is one powerful element that unites them - the Christian God himself. To find the way to truth (God) is a task of extraordinary dimensions for any single man - certainly so for the common man. Thus, the tendency of Prot people to think in group. Communities of thought (and prayer) are a distinguishing feature of Prot societies. Once each man has reached his truth, then, Prot people tend to act individually according to each man's truth.

Cath people, on the contrary, are not used to search for truth (God) - this is a task left to the elite. When the elite is not present, there is nothing that unites them in their thinking and each one of them tends to think for himself. Thus, Cath people tend to think individually. This creates a very serious difficulty when it comes to action. How can a man who thinks for himself and apart from all others be sure that his thinking is right? He cannot. Thus, the Cath man, in the absence of an elite, is very hesitant when it comes to take decisions and actions. The confidence that he lacks in himself he finds it in the group. Thus, his tendency to act in group which is the way to comfort him of his own insecurity.

It might then be concluded that whereas Prot people tend to think in group and act individually, Cath people in turn, when the elite is absent - who, otherwise, would have told each one of them what to do - tend to think individually and act in group.

unless


Cath people expect the elite to tell them what to think and what to do. Prot people, on the contrary, develop a sense for learning in order to be able to think for themselves and act according to their thinking.

Thinking is a precondition for action in a Prot society; orders or commands issued by the elite are the precondition for action in a Cath society. When the elite is not there, Cath people are left to themselves and that means trouble. Since they have not been educated to learn and think on their own, and since they lack the faculty of abstract thinking, they lose the sense of the future which requires the capacity of abstract thought.

Their actions tend to be guided by what is concrete and immediate - the here and the now - which is the way of thinking of the poor. If they were not poor before the elite has departed, they will become so, unless they are able to secure some external aid. Without an elite and external aid impoverishment is their fate - except for a miracle of God.

elite


An elite is a spontaneous authority. The first elite of Christian civilization was the Catholic Church - mainly, its bishops and towering among them, the Pope. Despite the Protestant schism, the Catholic Church remains to this day the most widely recognized spontaneous authority - that is, elite - in Western Civilization and in the whole World.

que converse!

Numa entrevista transmitida ontem pela SIC, o Presidente do Conselho Económico e Social comparou a pobreza em África com a pobreza em Portugal e deu como exemplo o sofrimento de uma criança de África com fome, que comparou ao de uma criança portuguesa que não tenha dinheiro para comprar roupa “adequada” e que por esse motivo se sinta ridicularizada pelos colegas da escola.
Na opinião do Presidente do CES é legítimo comparar a situação destas duas crianças que sofrem de modo idêntico, devido à pobreza relativa de ambas.
Ouço e pasmo. Uma coisa são as necessidades básicas de sobrevivência e outra, certamente, são desejos e impulsos consumistas. O desejo de uma criança por umas sapatilhas de marca poderá ser comparado à necessidade de leite ou cereais? Estas afirmações ridicularizam a verdadeira pobreza e justificam a insensibilidade ocidental perante o continente africano.
Que dizer a um pai que se sente dividido entre doar uns euros para uma ONG que distribui ajuda alimentar em África ou comprar umas All-Stars para a filha? Que o imperativo moral é idêntico?

27 maio 2008

Caloteiro no Oásis


O "Prós e Contras" de ontem à noite foi interessante. Medina Carreira sempre catastrófico. Nogueira Leite azedo mas sóbrio. Teodora Cardoso excessivamente argumentativa. Basílio Horta documentado e menos diletante do que é costume. E depois, aquele outro senhor como entertainer de serviço. Do debate retive duas ideias.

Primeiro, a realidade portuguesa é mesmo má - tudo o resto é uma treta - mas, curiosamente, só há cerca de 3 ou 4 semanas para cá é que se começou outra vez a falar no assunto. Série "O oásis" - parte 2!

Segundo, que se generalizou na opinião pública a ideia de que um Estado devedor e mau pagador é uma coisa perfeitamente normal. Não entendo que país é este, que não se revolta, a sério, contra o Estado caloteiro e que põe em risco a sobrevivência de muitas (boas) empresas. Sobretudo, quando à falta de melhor (leia-se: redução da Despesa de funcionamento do Estado), a solução apontada por Nogueira Leite - emitir dívida pública - é razoável e implementável.

Num país afirmativo, para não dizer um país decente, não existiria base moral para o Fisco executar quem quer que fosse enquanto as dívidas do próprio Estado não estivessem regularizadas. Mas estamos em Portugal, onde os políticos fazem o que lhes apetece. Incluindo cobrar impostos sobre impostos, como é o caso do IVA sobre o Imposto sobre Produtos Petrolíferos - já de si elevadíssimo. Indevido e inconstitucional. "Oásis"? Pois claro que sim.

Ps: um abraço aos meus colegas e caros leitores do Portugal Contemporâneo. Nas últimas semanas não tenho sido de grande auxílio, mas em breve regressarei com outro dinamismo.

Gordon, cut taxes and spending




When trade unions and the Fabians invented what became the 20th-century Labour Party, no working man or woman paid any tax. It was easy to call for higher taxes because only the Tory-voting bourgeoisie paid them. Now working people are faced with massive deductions from their pay.
...
Gordon, cut taxes and spending.

fast lane









Nicolas Sarkozy entend aussi proposer à ses partenaires européens de «suspendre» la TVA sur les produits pétroliers pour faire face à la hausse du prix du pétrole. «Cela veut dire que la TVA ne s'appliquerait plus à un niveau donné» de prix du pétrole», a expliqué le chef de l'Etat. Mais «c'est une décision qui serait européenne», a-t-il nuancé.

Figaro de hoje.

a taste for words


The British have been for centuries the arch-enemies of Catholicism. In their wars, intellectual and otherwise, against the Catholic Church they have developed in their thought and language a most effective tradition to ridicule Catholicism and Catholic peoples.
.
If there is a language particularly effective to ridicule the Portuguese people that is English. Indeed, nobody can be as effective at it as the British - and without us noticing it. Their sense of humour is sarcastic and sober, they just hit at the point and then let people take their own conclusions and laugh. One of their preferred targets is our propensity for words (rather than actions) which I have been discussing as a main feature of Catholic culture. It is estimated that the Portuguese use as much as 40% more words than the British to express the same idea.
.
For example, last December the Portuguese prime-minister delivered the closing speech of the EU presidency in Lisbon before the heads of government of the EU member-countries. The following day there were several pieces in the British press glosing the speech for its extension, the big words, the facial contortions, the grandiose gestures accompanying it (v.g., here with translation).
.
Obviously, the British do not know that we have much better than that and I believe we should hide the best representatives of our tradition from them, otherwise they would laugh to death. What makes it funny in their eyes is our capacity to talk for hours and hours with difficult words and grandiose gestures often to say nothing, if not outright lies. Take this example: look at the assertiveness, the confidence in the words and the determination in the gestures. But, in the end, do you really believe that Brandão is the aldrabão?

burritos










“Não vamos permitir que os mexicanos mais pobres paguem as consequências de uma crise que se originou fora das nossas fronteiras”. Foi com esta afirmação que o Presidente Felipe Calderon, do México, anunciou o fim de todas as taxas e tarifas sobre produtos alimentares importados.
No meu ponto de vista trata-se de uma excelente decisão do governo Mexicano e de um exemplo que, mais cedo do que se pensa, muitos outros governos terão de adoptar.

tax and spend

A candidata a líder do PSD, Manuela Ferreira Leite, propôs como medida para a saúde que os cidadãos com maiores rendimentos passassem a pagar mais pelo acesso ao SNS.
Esta boca populista, aliás defendida por muito boa gente à direita do PS, não é concretizável. Em primeiro lugar porque é anticonstitucional. A constituição garante o acesso geral, universal e tendencialmente gratuito a todos. Mas mesmo que fosse possível alterar a constituição, esta medida seria irrealista e imoral porque com o actual sistema de impostos progressivos quem ganha mais já contribui mais.
Esta proposta da Dra. Manuela Ferreira Leite constituiria apenas um imposto adicional. Grande amiga do alheio, esta candidata do PSD.

The Catholic view

The Catholic view on homossexuality is, briefly, the following:

"A homossexualidade designa as relações entre homens ou mulheres, que experimentam uma atracção sexual exclusiva ou predominante para com pessoas do mesmo sexo. Reveste formas muito variáveis, através dos séculos e das culturas. A sua génese psíquica continua em grande parte por explicar. Apoiando-se na Sagrada Escritura, que os apresenta como depravações graves, a Tradição sempre declarou que 'os actos de homossexualidade são intrinsecamente desordenados' (CDF, decl. Persona Humana 8). São contrários à lei natural, fecham o acto sexual ao dom da vida, não procedem de uma verdadeira complementaridade afectiva sexual, não podem, em caso algum, receber aprovação.

Um número não desprezível de homens e de mulheres apresenta tendências homossexuais profundas. Eles não escolhem a sua condição de homossexuais; essa condição constitui, para a maior parte deles, uma provação. Devem ser acolhidos com respeito, compaixão e delicadeza. Evitar-se-á, em relação a eles, qualquer sinal de discriminação injusta. Essas pessoas são chamadas a realizar na sua vida a vontade de Deus e, se são cristãs, a unir ao sacrifício da Cruz do Senhor as dificuldades que podem encontrar devido à sua condição.

As pessoas homossexuais são chamadas à castidade. Pelas virtudes do autodomínio, educadoras da liberdade interior, e, às vezes, pelo apoio de uma amizade desinteressada, pela oração e pela graça sacramental, podem e devem aproximar-se, gradual e resolutamente, da perfeição cristã".

(Catecismo da Igreja Católica: 2358-59).

translation



This is a translation of this post:

"Pessoas pelas quais eu tenho grande consideração, sugeriram-me recentemente que escrevesse os meus posts em Português. O argumento é o de que os meus posts teriam mais leitores.

Gostaria de dizer que não sou sensível a este argumento. Estou convencido que os leitores adicionais que seriam atraidos aos meus posts se eu escrevesse em Português, e não em Inglês, não ficariam por muito tempo porque, de qualquer modo, não compreenderiam aquilo sobre o que estou a escrever. Por isso, na minha opinião, não faz qualquer diferença escrever em Português ou em Inglês".

defending


Tonight in Prós-e-Contras: on one side, Medina Carreira, a truthful man; on the other side, Basílio Horta defending his tacho.

26 maio 2008

90 vs. 300

O meu querido amigo Luís Rocha, incontestável líder da oposição concelhia do PSD/Porto, mania romântica que não lhe passa nem com a idade, apresentou, em conjunto com os demais «oposicionistas», 90 pertinentes e enormes questões endereçadas aos quatro candidatos a líderes do PSD. Não ignorando a pertinência de todas e de cada uma das 90 dúvidas social-democratas, elas parecem-me, contudo, insuficientes e em número francamente reduzido. 90 perguntas apenas, ainda que com a substância de cada uma delas, ocupariam os candidatos, no máximo, vá lá, até às eleições legislativas, sabido que é o tempo preenchido de cada um deles e o esforço de substância a que teriam de proceder para responderem capazmente ao temível questionário. Como, nestes assuntos da política e do governo, o ideal é que os políticos andem entretidos com outras coisas mais importantes que não a governação, eu sugeriria ao Luís que, em vez de 90, as questões fossem 300. Número próprio dos heróis, como se vê pela gravura que acompanha este post. E um futuro líder do PSD precisa de ser um verdadeiro herói para colar os cacos em que o partido está estilhaçado. Não obstante o número muito reduzido das perguntas, não quero perder a circunstância para salientar a que é a minha favorita, a 12, à qual responderia com felicidade, fosse eu candidato a líder do PSD: «O aquecimento global é uma ameaça ou simples moda passageira?» A minha resposta seria clara: no PSD, o aquecimento global é uma ameaça séria; no resto do mundo, uma moda passageira. Um abraço amigo, caro Luís, e parabéns pelo esforço.

eurovalor

European economic and monetary affairs commissioner Joaquin Almunia said, according to International Monetary Fund (IMF) tests, the euro is over-valued when compared to other currencies.
"If you ask all those who in the work of preparing estimates of (foreign exchange) equilibrium, most of them, including the IMF ... say that the euro area exchange rate, now, both in real and effective exchange rate and bilateral tests with some other currencies reflects an overvalued euro".
Almunia added that appreciation of the euro is linked to narrowing the gap between import and export growth.
He was speaking at a news conference following the European Commission's economic forecasts.

Almunia, citado pela Reuters, no final de Abril.

She will win


When, after several years of abusing its own traditions and living outside of them, a Cath country, such as this one, gets in deep trouble and is looking for leadership, what kind of factor matters most in the choice of the new leader - ideology or personality?

The answer is personality. Cath people are not good at ideology because it is not in their tradition. They are second-hand traders of imported ideologies. In their political discourse, ideologies always seem fake, it is always rather obvious that they do not mean what they say, ideology is only a flag in the political dispute.

On the contrary, personality is a very serious matter in their very personalistic culture. In times of trouble, when there is no room left for mistakes, as they try to reconstruct their lost leadership and need guidance, one of the characteristics they value most in would-be leaders is maturity and experience, which usually means age.

In the run for the Presidency of PSD, PPC is playing the card of ideological liberalism against the mature personality of MFL. She will win.

euro challenge

No post anterior procurei caracterizar as consequências da sobrevalorização do euro, em relação às exportações e às importações. É claro que o petróleo não é a nossa única importação e que os resultados da politica do BCE são demasiado complexos para serem analisados em cima do joelho. Não há porem qualquer dúvida que uma moeda forte ajuda os países que exportam para a Europa.
E uma moeda forte convém aos europeus ou não? Uma moeda estável é positiva para a economia. A sobrevalorização ou a desvalorização são negativas. Como por cá ainda estamos tão bem lembrados do escudo, analisemos apenas o problema da sobrevalorização.
A sobrevalorização ocorre sobretudo quando as taxas de juros estão demasiado altas e a procura da moeda se torna mais apetecível para os investidores. Neste momento, com a desvalorização do dólar, o euro tornou-se apetecível como investimento e como moeda de refúgio.
As taxas altas prejudicam o investimento local e afectam directamente todos os que recorrem ao crédito. O colapso do imobiliário em Espanha e o nosso mini-colapso devem-se a este factor. A construção é afectada, mas também o investimento público, uma vez que o serviço da dívida capta mais recursos.
A sobrevalorização da moeda, por outro lado, amortece a inflação, mas não resolve o essencial. Com inflação alta os consumidores sentem que o dinheiro que ganham não chega para o aumento dos preços. Com a moeda alta os consumidores sentem-se mais pobres, apesar dos preços não subirem tanto. O resultado é parecido. Contudo há ganhadores e perdedores com a politica do BCE.
Os países que exportam para a Europa, como os EUA e os países produtores de petróleo ficam a ganhar e as empresas europeias que exportam para fora do continente ficam a perder. Exemplo: Ganha a Microsoft e a Arábia Saudita e perde a Airbus e a Mercedes.

25 maio 2008

ajudar os ricos

A política monetária do BCE constitui uma ajuda directa aos países produtores de petróleo.
Ao valorizar activamente o Euro, por via de elevadas taxas de juro, o BCE faz com que o preço relativo dos combustíveis tenha subido menos por cá, do que por exemplo nos EUA, sustendo uma procura maior. Os consumidores europeus continuam, portanto, a manter um nível de consumo que não seria possível de outro modo, contribuindo para manter os preços elevados e para enriquecer os produtores.
As vítimas deste monetarismo à Trichet são sobretudo as empresas europeias que exportam para fora da UE e que ficam com mais dificuldades para vender os seus produtos no exterior. Concluo portanto que a política do BCE se traduz, na prática, por transvazar recursos da Europa para os países produtores de petróleo.
Como ninguém dá nada a ninguém, quais serão as contrapartidas que a Europa recebe dos países produtores?

TGV para quê?

TGV para quê? Este fim-de-semana fui até Madrid. Saí de casa, no Porto, por volta das 10 da manhã e às 12 já estava sentado numa terraza, a beber um expresso “maquillado”, no bairro de Salamanca. O preço dos bilhetes varia bastante com a antecedência com que se compram, mas não é nenhum luxo. Fica mais barato do que ir de carro a Lisboa, contas feitas à gasolina e às portagens.
Já soube de quem vive em Madrid e trabalha diariamente, aqui na Invicta. Com esta comodidade, é necessário perguntarmos para que precisamos do TGV?

reaches Asia


Portugal Contemporâneo crosses continents and reaches Asia with this post.

Portugal now

Following my last few posts, I would like now to answer the following question: what happens to a Cath society if, over the course of several years, it decides to import the main cultural features of a Prot society?

Among other things, this means for the Cath society,

1. To replace its personalistic, corporative system of economic organization by impersonal market liberalism;
2. To replace its highly developed spirit of group by an atomistic, lonely individualism;
3. To replace its utmost care with words and thoughts by absolute freedom of expression;
4. To replace its visible elites by no visible elites at all;
5. To replace its view of man as being unique in his personality by a view of man as being the same as any other man;
6. To replace its concrete way of thinking, which pays attention to details, by an abstract way of thinking, where details do not matter at all;
7. To replace its homogenous orthodoxy of thought by competitive orthodoxies;
8. To replace its tolerance with regard to small sins and small violations of the law by strict enforcement of the law by the police.

The answer is ( following the same order):
1. Economic insecurity;
2. Loneliness;
3. Aggressiveness;
4. Disorientation;
5. Depersonalization;
6. Massification;
7. Conflictuality;
8. Fear.

ideology


It is their view of men as being reduced to the bare essentials of human nature and their associated capacity to think in abstract terms, where details do not matter, that give people in Prot societies their great propensity to create ideologies. Ideologues are predominantly a product of Prot societies.

An ideology is a rationally devised political program that promises some good to all of mankind, or at least the majority of it. It is impossible to think about such a program without looking at mankind as being composed by men who are essentially the same for only then one can make the argument that what is good for one man is good for the majority of them, even the whole of mankind.

Indeed, the Prot culture distinguishing view of man is his sameness with all other men - that is, his human nature. By contrast, what distinguishes man in a Cath culture is a combination of particularities and accidents of character which resulted from birth or evolved during the course of his life - that is, his personality. In a Prot culture all men are equal in their human nature; in a Cath society all men are different in their personalities. The sameness of all men, as viewed through the lenses of Prot culture, makes each man easily replaceable in society, in the factory, even in the family. The uniqueness of man in the Cath culture makes each man irreplaceable in all spheres of life. Individual human life is thus less valued in a Prot society than in a Cath one.

If the capacity to think in abstract terms confers to the people of Prot societies the potential to become great scientists and in this way benefit greatly the whole of humanity, it is also true that this very same capacity of abstract thinking becomes a very dangerous entreprise when applied to the affairs of men and society. For it is such capacity that also confers to them the potential to become the great ideologues and the great killers of humanity.

science

The personalism of Cath societies leads people to attach great importance to what is peculiar and accidental in the human person. They distinguish one man from another not by what is common and permanent in both - that is, their human nature - but by what is particular or accidental in each one of them. (v.g., do you know Joe, that guy with a big, black moustache?; or, do you remember Mary, that blonde with gorgeous legs?)

By contrast, the impersonalism of Prot societies leads people to look at man by what is general and permanent in them - that is, their human nature. This focus on the essential, on what is permanent and general, and disregard for the particular and the accidental, develops in people of Prot societies one capacity that is characteristically their own, namely, the capacity to think in abstract terms. This is a way of thinking which disregards details, that which is particular and accidental to concentrate on essentials, that which is general and permanent. This is also the way of thinking in science.

Science looks for what is general and permanent within a certain class of natural or social phenomena. It tends to disregard details such as those which represent particularities or accidents in such phenomena. It thus requires the capacity of abstract thinking and this is a capacity that is ingrained in the impersonalistic culture of Prot societies.

People in Cath societies, by contrast, tend always to think in concrete terms, they usually talk in terms of stories involving people they know and details associated with peculiarities and accidents in their personalities and lives. They cannot think, or have great difficulty to think, in abstract terms. Their thinking is always tied to a particular feature or accident. Thus, in the example above, they cannot think of Mary without thinking of her gorgeous legs because, in their eyes, it is those gorgeous legs that give Mary her distinct individuality. A man from a Prot society would simply talk about Mary, not about their distinguishing legs because - he would argue - women with gorgeous legs like Mary there are many millions in the world.

This difference between, on the one hand, the greater propensity of the Prot man to think and speak in abstract terms and, on the other hand, the greater propensity of the Cat man to think and speak in concrete terms is such that sometimes the dialogue between the two becomes impossible, or at least amazing:

-There is a law in Economics, called the law of demand, which states that when the price goes up the quantity purchased of any given product goes down, ceteris paribus, says the Prot man.

-Oh, that is not true, because last year when the prices of Mercedes went up by 20% my uncle Joaquim bought a new one, says the Cath man.

The conclusion is that, because of the great difficulty of the Cath man to think in abstract terms, science is not definitely one of the strong points of the Cath culture when compared with the Prot culture. (Check the Nobel prize-winners in science, both in the natural and in the social sciences, and see for yourself).

crise do petróleo?

O Paulo Ferreira, do Câmara de Comuns, lançou um pertinente desafio aos «liberais da blogosfera». Sucintamente, ele pergunta como se deve interpretar, à luz do que dizem os liberais sobre o mercado, a contínua subida dos preços do petróleo, quando as reservas parecem estar a aumentar, e até o Secretário-Geral da OPEP apelou ao controlo dos preços.

Do meu ponto de vista, o problema deve ser suscitado nos seguintes termos:
1º Os preços não representam apenas a escassez ou a abundância de um bem. É certo que eles compreendem os seus custos de produção e as existências presentes e futuras, mas sobretudo a apetência que o mercado manifesta por ele. Ou seja, é essencialmente a procura que determina a variação dos preços. No caso do petróleo, apesar do aumento dos recursos, a procura não decaiu, pelo contrário, tem globalmente aumentado;

2º A reacção do mercado deve-se, também, ao valor político do petróleo e a um certo alarmismo introduzido na opinião pública sobre o que poderá acontecer num curto prazo. Por um lado, diz-se que a invasão do Iraque foi determinada pelo petróleo e que boa parte da geopolítica das grandes potências é ditada por ele. Por outro lado, as campanhas ecologistas massivas dos últimos anos apontam unanimemente para o fim do petróleo num curto prazo (pelo menos, para o fim dos recursos necessários à nossa civilização), o que o valoriza substancialmente, independentemente desses receios se virem, ou não, a confirmar;

3º É também importante realçar que o sistema de preços de mercado é um - o melhor - sistema de informações que podemos ter. O valor de mercado de um bem dá-nos um conjunto precioso de informações sobre ele, não apenas informações económicas, mas também, em certos casos, sobre o seu valor político. Talvez o petróleo seja actualmente o mais flagrante exemplo de um bem com um valor político inflacionado;

4º Quando o Secretário-Geral da OPEP acha que o mercado está a ser vítima de especuladores e necessita de intervenção (o que não deixa de ter uma certa graça, dado o histórico dessa organização) e associa isso à queda do dólar e à recessão americana, é evidente que está a acentuar a dimensão política do problema sobre a sua dimensão económica;

5º Na eventualidade de ser possível estabelecer um mercado livre do comércio do petróleo, isto é, livre do jogo político e do intervencionismo dos Estados, o que é uma utopia, os liberais diriam que o preço deste bem acabaria por se estabelecer no seu valor real e que os consumidores o teriam de suportar. A maneira de escapar a uma futura pressão de escassez será, como sucedeu no passado em relação a outras fontes de energia fundamentais, acelerar a investigação científica, e substituir, ou complementar, a sua utilização com a de outras fontes e outros recursos. A total liberdade de mercado seria, como sempre é, a melhor solução para se chegar a um preço justo;

6º Sendo o petróleo um recurso extraordinariamente dependente da política e da grande política mundial, o que nos indica este conjunto de factores – o descontrolo dos preços, a sua subida em flecha contrariando o aumento dos recurso, a recessão da economia americana, a queda continuada do dólar e o alarmismo da OPEP – é que o mundo está muito mais perigoso do que possamos pensar.